Week #7 picks

Woo!  3 and 1 last week, my best week yet, and really had it not been for the Esks falling short I would have hit four for four!  13 up and 11 down for the season – the same record as TSN expert Glen Schultz and two wins better than the “world” he’s going against.  (Maybe if I keep this up I should make this 3MW vs Schultz vs The World!)

But now isn’t the time to get cocky…  Lets go over week seven and see if I can’t have another solid week:

Thursday August 13th

Calgary @ Edmonton (Edmonton -1)
My pick: Edmonton – It pains me to pick this way as a Stampeders fan, but the Esks are at home and feelin pretty good about themselves despite the tough loss last week.  Their offense was pretty darn good save for two Ricky Ray interceptions and the defense while still needing work is showing signs of becoming a very capable shut down unit (witness the fact that they had held DeAndra’ Cobb to just 40 yards rushing into the 4th quarter).  Meanwhile the Stamps are coming off a win but a little unsure of themselves coming off a second straight week of giving up second half leads.  Add to that they are on the natural grass – something that more than one Stampeder has opined about – and you have a perfect storm of a less than focused team going up against a focused one at home.

Friday August 14th

BC @ Toronto (BC -3)
My pick: BC - Law of averages says at some point the Argos are going to win at home.  They can’t possibly go the next ten seasons without a home win – not even the U of T Varsity Blues were capable of that!  Do the finally do it then this week?  In a word, no.  Cody Pickett will get the start for the Argos in the hopes of jump starting something – anything – on the offensive side of the ball.  Defensive wise the Argos did ok against the Alouettes last week, but the constant failures of an offense puts too much pressure on a defense and they eventually cracked.  BC will do the same thing to them here as long as Buck Pierce has a patient game, keeps using the short passes and waits for the Argos to stumble upon themselves, something they are sure to do at some point.

Saturday August 15th

Montreal @ Winnipeg (Montreal -8)
My pick: Montreal - Just when the Blue Bombers thought they had something positive to build off of last week – and they did – now they get to come home and face the best team in the CFL so far.  The Bombers offensive line will have to be as great as they were last week to give themselves a chance at winning this one because if the Bombers can’t run to open up the passing game for Mike Bishop, then it’ll be a long night for them and their defense as well as we know Montreal will put up numbers offensively.  This game may end up being a tight contest if the Winnipeg players have great nights on the field, so what the game may come down to is the coaching of Mike Kelly and if he can push the right buttons to guide a scrappy, but less talented Blue Bombers team to an upset win…  I just don’t see that happening though.

Sunday August 16th

Hamilton @ Saskatchewan (Saskatchewan -5 1/2)
My pick: Hamilton - Again the TiCats get no love from the odds makers!!  Personaly, I think the “aura” of Taylor Field (I refuse to call it that other name..) is somewhat overrated and I think that’s what has factored into most people taking Saskatchewan here as the home side.  I haven’t been that impressed with what I’ve seen from the Riders the last three weeks.  I think they let the Eskimos get back into their game in week 4, I think they got lucky against a less than focused team in week 6 and I think they mailed in parts of their game last week against BC.  Their QB situation still isn’t completly settled and they are fighting tough injuries again as their top reciever Andy Fantuz again looks doubtful for Sunday’s game.  Meanwhile the Cats are playing the part of a locomotive on offense – slowly gaining speed, but once they get full steam they will be tough to stop – TiCats D needs to play a little better to start Sunday’s game than they did to start last week’s game.  If they do that and get out to an early lead, they’ll be golden… and hopefully cement thier status as a top level CFL team this season.

They Learned This Week: TiCats starting to be scary good!

After each week we recap the week that was in the CFL with a key lesson each team did (or at least I would hope they did) learn from the week that was…

BC - They still need to work on moving the ball just one yard forward.  – Another goal line offensive stand and another blown play as Lions QB Jarious Jackson threw up an INT early in the first quarter.  This was the third game in a row that the Lions have been on the goal line with three cracks at getting the ball into the end zone and yet walk away with nothing.  Jackson isn’t the answer for that kind of play.  The sooner Wally Buno realizes that, the better.

Calgary - Mike Bishop isn’t *that* good a QB. -  I’d kinda like to know what Stamps defensive coordinator Chris Jones was thinking by flaring his two defensive ends wider than normal against the Bombers.  Sure it was probably done in an effort to contain the scrambling ability of  Winnipeg QB Mike Bishop, but it left the defensive line way too venerable to the run as was demonstrated in the second half by Fred Reid and the Bombers offensive line.  Chances are, unless you’re playing the Eskimos, you’re going to be facing a mobile QB, so Jones would be wise not to make such a dramatic shift to his line next time.

Edmonton - You were beat by a good Tiger Cats team, no need to panic.  – I’m sure the fact the Eskimos opened up with a 12 point lead and blew it shortly after the second quarter started is a bit concerning, but the Eskimos could have easily walked away with the win had it not been for a couple of breaks that went Hamilton’s way.  Ricky Ray was very good and the two INTs he threw up were a result of him being hit.  They had a nice mix of running and passing in the game…  Prefontane was automatic…  Maybe the only area they need to work on is defense, but that will come in time as their young secondary gets better.

Hamilton – We may only be seeing just the beginning of a dominant TiCats offense.  – They have one of the best duos in the CFL with Arland Bruce and Prechae Rodrieguez…  Add DeAndra’ Cobb out of the backfield and Dave Stala as a third wide out option for QB Quinton Porter to throw to and you have the makings of a very scary offense that will be hard to stop.

Montreal – It’s not going to be as easy as it was against Toronto  - So how does a team that had it’s perfect run ended last week respond?  By having a nearly perfect game the next week!  Calvillo was five yards away from 400 passing, three Als wide outs had 80+ yards receiving, seven sacks on defense and of course the shutout – the first in the CFL in three seasons.  All of it would be impressive as hell if it wasn’t for the fact it came against Toronto.  Do that against Hamilton or Calgary or… well hell, any of the six other CFL teams, and then we’d be impressed!

Saskatchewan – Wes Cates isn’t quite 100% yet. – 11 carries for 38 yards.  That was the line for Cates on Friday night against the Lions.  Steven Jyles only had three rushes and yet still managed to out run him by 36 yards.  Now granted the Lions D was flying in that game and running against them was a huge chore, but you have to believe that Cates isn’t quite 100% yet.

Toronto – The offense this year isn’t any better than it was last year, in fact it may be worse!  – The Argos only have one offensive touchdown in their last two games.  The lone bright spot for the team has been the play of running back Jamal Robertson, but with no pass game and a bad offensive line that allowed seven sacks against Montreal there is no way he can carry the offense.  Unlike last year they don’t have a go-to weapon like Arland Bruce at wide out..  Speaking of Bruce, maybe he had a point about the coach needing to get the QB back on track huh?

Winnipeg - Fred Reid should really get the ball more in the first quarter.  – Reid only had four touches of the ball in the first half and rattled off runs of 4, 2, 8 and 3 yards.  Now part of that was due to the fact the Bombers were 2 and out in the first five drives they had, but can you imagine what would have been for that team has Reid been given a chance to run with the ball a little more in the first half?

TiCats just winning in the rain

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The recap from TSN.ca

The Turning Point: Many would point to the 40 yard run by TiCats running back DeAndra’ Cobb that helped set up QB Quinton Porter’s 1 yard dive into the end zone for the game winning points as the turning point, but Cobb’s run which was called a touchdown at first was subject to a booth review and it was shown that he was stopped short by about four feet.  This forced Hamilton to run another play (Porter’s TD dive) and more importantly took another 10 seconds off the game clock.  The Esks offense didn’t get the ball back until there was 42 seconds left when if the Cobb TD had been allowed to stand they would have gotten it with 55 or more seconds on the clock.  Ricky Ray did well to move the ball very quickly down the field and with 9 seconds left did have the ball at the 33 yard line but only had time for one more play.  If it had not been for the mandatory booth review that becomes automatic with three minutes left at the end of each half and the subsequent need to run another play, the Esks may have actually had time for two plays from the 33 yard line and a chance to get the answering TD to tie the game.

The game ball goes to: Hamilton QB Quinton Porter 25 out of 27 passing for 211 yards and 1 touchdown.  He also rushed 3 times for 17 yards, his final rush was the game winning touchdown dive with a minute left in the game.  He took care of the ball and even when his offense stalled a few times in the first quarter he did not get frustrated and start trying to force passes.

Random game thoughts: In six games, the TiCats have only given up 14 points in the 4th quarter.  Those 14 were against the BC Lions in week 2 – a game Hamilton still won  …  TiCats wideout Arland Bruce started being thrown to more in this game, he had 8 catches for 78 yards  …  Fred Stamps for the Eskimos also had a good day receiving with 7 catches for 150 yards  …  Efrem Hill started at wide receiver for the Esks in place of Maurice Mann who was a late scratch for Esks coach Richie Hall.  He had three catches in the game for 60 yards, the first two of those catches of the athletic one foot barley inbounds type  …  Edmonton kicker Noel Prefontane was 4 for 4 kicking field goals  …  Ricky Ray had a decent night going 23 out of 37 pass attempts for 335 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.  Both INTs took place on plays where he was hit while throwing.  …  The Eskimos made four trips into the redzone and only came away with one touchdown and three field goals.

Final grades
Eskimos Offense: B-
Eskimos Defense: C
Eskimos Special Teams: B-

TiCats Offense: B+
TiCats Defense: B+
TiCats Special Teams: B

3MW Week 5 Power Rankings

1 – Montreal - They still own the best record and they are still the class of the CFL at this point.  One loss on the road out west won’t change that. They lead the league in most points for, fewest scored against and they get a chance to right the ship against Toronto at home this Friday.

2 – Hamilton - These kitties are for real.  As Eskimos reciever Kamau Peterson stated on his Twitter: “The days of the basement dwelling ticats are over. Big week for us, gotta get ready…cuz they will be.”

3 – Calgary - The Stamps offense so far has not quite gotten on track despite what some (me included) thought last week.  Worse yet there are rumblings that infighting is starting to wreak havoc in the Calgary dressing room… and that was during a two game winning streak!

4 – Edmonton - Outstanding win at home against Montreal takes the sting out of two humiliating losses that happened prior, but it’ll take more than just one big win at home to convince us all is well in Esks world.

5 – Saskatchewan - Week four was a loss that really had no place in happeneing after staking a 20+ point lead after the first quarter, but week five was a win that seemed very unlikely with 2 minutes left in the game.  It does look like Darrian Durant saved his starting job for now.  Another solid effort against the Lions will cement it.

6 – Winnipeg - The Bombers didn’t exactly wow any one with their win in Toronto and the fact they were handed seven turnovers and still needed a last second missed field goal to escape with the win does seem kind of unreal.

7 – B.C. - Honestly Lions fans it really isn’t that bad for your team.  At the very least (barring a trade to someone else of course) you won’t have to see your team’s defense being trampled on by DeAndra’ Cobb anymore!

8 – Toronto - We know the Lions have a worse record.. but we counter that with seven simple arguments: TURNOVERS!!  Seven turnovers is horrible! You’d expect that from a high school team, not a pro football club!  Add to the fact Argo fans are still waiting to see a win at home…

Defense, special teams paves way for TiCats offense in win

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The recap from TSN.ca

The turning point: There was a point where the Lions looked like they were going to take a stranglehold of this game…  Early in the 3rd quarter with the Leos up 18-17, after a bad INT throw from Cats QB Quentin Porter the Lions drove it down the shortened field and with first down on the Ti-Cats one yard line brought in Jarious Jackson to make the dive for six.  Former Lion DB Markeith Knowlton though had other ideas and stripped Jackson on his dive attempt to give the ball back to Hamilton on their one one yard line.  From there Porter and the Cats marched methodically down field with a great series of short passes.  They took well over ten minutes off the clock as they practically owned the ball in the 3rd quarter.  The drive ended in just three points, but on the ensuing kickoff Lions returner Ryan Grice-Mullen fumbled the ball at his 30 yard line which put the tired Lions defense right back on the field and they quickly gave up a rushing touchdown to super rookie DeAndra’ Cobb.

The game ball goes to: Tiger-Cats running back DeAndra’ Cobb was all over the place and the Lions had no answer for him.  17 caries for 167 yards and 2 TDs, he also had 2 catches out of the backfield for 27 yards.  Honorable mention goes to the Hamilton offensive line for opening up huge gaps for Cobb.

Random game thoughts: How much do the Lions miss Cameron Wake?  …  Leo fans can’t really pin this loss on Buck Pierce, 23 out of 36 passing for 282 yards. He did have 2 INT’s, but one was caused as a result of a Lions receiver stumbling  …  Arland Bruce (da third) who came over from the Argos in a trade earlier this week saw only very limited playing time on offense and special teams.  He also wore #4 which is a number he first wore with the Bombers back when he broke into the league  …  Ti-Cats LB Jamall Johnson led his team with 10 tackles  …  This was the first time the Ti-Cats have swept a season series against the Lions since 1992

Final grades
Lions Offense: C
Lions Defense: C
Lions Special Teams: D

Ti-Cats Offense: B+
Ti-Cats Defense: B+
Ti-Cats Special Teams: A-