Week #7 picks

Woo!  3 and 1 last week, my best week yet, and really had it not been for the Esks falling short I would have hit four for four!  13 up and 11 down for the season – the same record as TSN expert Glen Schultz and two wins better than the “world” he’s going against.  (Maybe if I keep this up I should make this 3MW vs Schultz vs The World!)

But now isn’t the time to get cocky…  Lets go over week seven and see if I can’t have another solid week:

Thursday August 13th

Calgary @ Edmonton (Edmonton -1)
My pick: Edmonton – It pains me to pick this way as a Stampeders fan, but the Esks are at home and feelin pretty good about themselves despite the tough loss last week.  Their offense was pretty darn good save for two Ricky Ray interceptions and the defense while still needing work is showing signs of becoming a very capable shut down unit (witness the fact that they had held DeAndra’ Cobb to just 40 yards rushing into the 4th quarter).  Meanwhile the Stamps are coming off a win but a little unsure of themselves coming off a second straight week of giving up second half leads.  Add to that they are on the natural grass – something that more than one Stampeder has opined about – and you have a perfect storm of a less than focused team going up against a focused one at home.

Friday August 14th

BC @ Toronto (BC -3)
My pick: BC - Law of averages says at some point the Argos are going to win at home.  They can’t possibly go the next ten seasons without a home win – not even the U of T Varsity Blues were capable of that!  Do the finally do it then this week?  In a word, no.  Cody Pickett will get the start for the Argos in the hopes of jump starting something – anything – on the offensive side of the ball.  Defensive wise the Argos did ok against the Alouettes last week, but the constant failures of an offense puts too much pressure on a defense and they eventually cracked.  BC will do the same thing to them here as long as Buck Pierce has a patient game, keeps using the short passes and waits for the Argos to stumble upon themselves, something they are sure to do at some point.

Saturday August 15th

Montreal @ Winnipeg (Montreal -8)
My pick: Montreal - Just when the Blue Bombers thought they had something positive to build off of last week – and they did – now they get to come home and face the best team in the CFL so far.  The Bombers offensive line will have to be as great as they were last week to give themselves a chance at winning this one because if the Bombers can’t run to open up the passing game for Mike Bishop, then it’ll be a long night for them and their defense as well as we know Montreal will put up numbers offensively.  This game may end up being a tight contest if the Winnipeg players have great nights on the field, so what the game may come down to is the coaching of Mike Kelly and if he can push the right buttons to guide a scrappy, but less talented Blue Bombers team to an upset win…  I just don’t see that happening though.

Sunday August 16th

Hamilton @ Saskatchewan (Saskatchewan -5 1/2)
My pick: Hamilton - Again the TiCats get no love from the odds makers!!  Personaly, I think the “aura” of Taylor Field (I refuse to call it that other name..) is somewhat overrated and I think that’s what has factored into most people taking Saskatchewan here as the home side.  I haven’t been that impressed with what I’ve seen from the Riders the last three weeks.  I think they let the Eskimos get back into their game in week 4, I think they got lucky against a less than focused team in week 6 and I think they mailed in parts of their game last week against BC.  Their QB situation still isn’t completly settled and they are fighting tough injuries again as their top reciever Andy Fantuz again looks doubtful for Sunday’s game.  Meanwhile the Cats are playing the part of a locomotive on offense – slowly gaining speed, but once they get full steam they will be tough to stop – TiCats D needs to play a little better to start Sunday’s game than they did to start last week’s game.  If they do that and get out to an early lead, they’ll be golden… and hopefully cement thier status as a top level CFL team this season.

Week #6 picks

(I’m gonna continue the weekly CFL picks that I started on my other blog starsscene.com.  To recap my picks from last week, click here.)

Am I not supposed to be getting better at these picks instead of worse?  After a few weeks of 2 and 2 efforts, I spent last week going 1 and 3!  I’m now exactly .500 on the season at 10 right and 10 wrong.

Ouch.

Just a reminder, I’m just picking straight up winners and losers here…  Now that I’ve reminded myself of who I am supposed to pick, lets get to it:

Friday August 7th

Toronto @ Montreal (Montreal -14)
My pick: Montreal – I have a hard time believing that Calgary (as you’ll see in a moment) has a slightly bigger spread against a more difficult opponent than the Als do against Toronto.  Montreal is at home (only unbeaten team at home by the way) and should be focused and ready to amke amends for last weeks loss on the road.  The last time the Als were dialed and and wanting to get a bit of revenge was back in week one where they stomped out the Stamps on their own turf.  I can’t see the Argos having a chance at all in this one.

Saskatchewan @ BC (BC -1 1/2)
My pick: BC - I refuse to believe that the Lions are as bad as their 1 and 4 record indicates.  Honestly I see a lot of good for the Lions and the additions they’ve made this week make them that much better.  Meanwhile the Riders have been consistently inconsistent.  Will coach Ken Miller keep running the QB rotation that seemed to work decently enough against Calgary?  Andy Fantuz should be back for this game for the Riders (UPDATE 3:05 pm MST: Or maybe not…  Chris Getzlaf will be starting in his place again on Friday), but still I just can’t see the Lions falling to 1 and 5 with a loss at home.

 

Saturday August 8th

Edmonton @ Hamilton (Hamilton -1)
My pick: Edmonton - I’ve done pretty well picking Hamilton most of the time this season and I truly do believe they are for real, but I also think the Eskimos have gotten it back together somewhat as well and I think they’ll go into Hamilton very focused and prepared.  Of the four games this week, this is the one where I could flip a coin to figure out who I’d pick and either way I’d be ok with it.  I like that the Esks offense is starting to click again, I like that they are using RB Calvin McCarty more and there defense looked very good keeping Montreal unbalanced last week..

Winnipeg @ Calgary (Calgary -14 1/2)
My pick: Calgary - I can’t believe the Stamps are this heavily favored against the Bombers who granted didn’t have the greatest of games in Toronto, but at least still won and showed some promise with Mike Bishop at QB.  The Bombers O-Line has been pretty good as well this season only allowing 9 sacks in the first 5 games (Only Montreal has fewer sacks allowed with 3) so it can’t be the fact that Calgary’s defensive line may run roughshod over them.  I still think the Stamps will win this game, but it won’t be by anything more than a seven point margin at best.

Riders strike late and hang on for last minute win

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The recap from TSN.ca

The turning point: The Stampeders had a six point lead and the ball at about midfield with a little over two minutes to go and could have easily locked up the game with a first down to either kill more time or get kicker Sandro DeAngelis closer for a field goal that would have given the Stamps a nine point lead.  Coach John Hufnagel though called two very conservative running plays that gained all of four yards.  Sandro – who was a perfect nine for nine on the season in FG attempts up to that point – then lined up on the right hash mark for a 49 yard field goal attempt that was somewhat wind aided, but pushed it wide left.  The Riders Weston Dressler ran it out of the endzone and to the Stamps 45 yard line giving them excellent field position.  Two plays later Sask QB Darrian Durant hit Chris Getzlaf with a 65 yard TD pass and run to put the Riders up by one with a little over a minute left in the game.  Calgary couldn’t muster a first down in the next two drives they were given and it was game over.

The game ball goes to: Before the game Roughriders coach Ken Miller said that unless it was obvious that QB Durant had a hot hand, he was going to put in backup QB Steven Jyles in after four or five series and despite an early TD pass from Durant he did just that, but Jyles was mostly ineffective in the second quarter and Durant was put back in at the start of the second half. Good call by Miller as Durant went 17 of 28 passing for three touchdowns and one INT.

Random game thoughts: Stamps linebacker Odell Willis picked up another sack for his league leading 7th of the season. Amazing when you consider he wasn’t even in the lineup for week one  …  Riders WR Andy Fantuz was a late scratch forcing Chris Getzlaf into the starting lineup, obviously Chris stepped up big time with five catches for a total of 101 yards and 2 TDs  …  Joffrey Reynolds ran for 112 yards off of 14 rushing attempts.

Final grades
Riders Offense: B-
Riders Defense: B
Riders Special Teams: C

Stamps Offense: B-
Stamps Defense: B-
Stamps Special Teams: C+